Sunday, January 29, 2012

Emerging Super and Flop Powers ! Through the lenses of authors of Asia...



Whether hard or soft; the notion of superpower has engulfed the imagination of power monger, strategist, scholars around the world for decades. It is especially true after second world war when all European powers were decimated and only two namely U.S.A. and U.S.S.R remained to occupy the space once dominated by Great Britain, Germany and others. The discussion about superpower becomes even more interesting when looked through the lens of Post American World (Fareed Zakaria), The Second World (Parag Khanna), UNESCO Science Report 2011 and many new interesting accounts of the changing paradigms of world.




The great hotbed of war of emerging superpowers and those of established ones is of course South Asia. Afghanistan is too part of larger South Asian family. Who can ignore the elephants in the room namely China, USA, Russia and Japan. When in the 50s theatre of brinkmanship was Korea, in the 60s Vietnam, in the 70s Arab states, in the 80s Afghanistan, in the 90s Caspian sea and independent countries from USSR, post 2000 it is Indian Ocean and post 2010 it is South Asia. Geling Yan from China, Thant Myint-U from Burma, and David Malone from Canada discussed, with Shashi Tharoor, notion of superpower and the great strategic game being played in Asia throughout the Indian ocean, in the plains of Burma, Afghanistan, Nepal and other countries. It is easy to predict it is all about energy resources but how old historical connections can get revived, altered or get destroyed through the dynamics of real polity that is the issue under investigation. How the policies of look east can be brittle, how ripen fruits of war won in the subcontinent can be sour if there is no engagement with the neighbours and how the old rivalries with China can be still major roadblock even in asserting our dream as responsible south Asian power let alone take steps in that direction.

Geling told that how concept of superpower can be self-defeating if the population is not much educated. It is not healthy. Because of people`s urge for male child and because of compelling one child policy, there is huge number of ‘silent/underground girls’ being pumped into urban areas without knowledge of officials who have been appointed to supervise this program. Thus these girls are forced to live in substandard condition. But significant thing about China is, there citizens are travelling across the world. They are bringing new business opportunities and technology back to the country. Especially this is true about ideas of innovation and wealth creation. The outside world has still confused itself by assuming that Chinese are very closed society. On the contrary secular character of Chinese society lies in their intensely cultivated and now deeply rooted in their pragmatic behaviour which thinks about empowering the individuals with opportunities, technologies and comfort levels. Here distinction between people and government must be made. There is no point in flashing up old/clichéd debate about democratic/free India and communist/authoritarian China. Nevertheless perils of secrecy, coercion and dominating the private space by state are sure to show the perils in coming times.

The impact of liberal policies in Burma seems to be attracting backlash from the established dictatorial institutions and leaders there. Indian has been historically neglectful of its neighbours. All the times it has to prepare itself to respond or absorb provocation from western frontier. But in the long term creative engagement with the Chinese government remains the challenge. Despite the fact that trade relations are growing, that is not sign for the long lasting trust and affinity in the possible convergence.
Chinese are heavily investing in the ports, rail-lines and roads through Burma and opening for grand bargain in the Indian Ocean. Let us see, how this story unfolds in coming days. This is especially interesting in the context of Indian government has started making positive gestures towards Burmese Junta Army and Burma has also started signalling U.S.A. for leveraging its strategic position. So, Burma is going to be new flashpoint in the subcontinent. Watch out for it.



Another simmering, burning and rotten flashpoint in the frying pan is Pakistan. Its recent Memogate scandal, tussle between Army and ‘civilian government’, Army`s long shot through Judiciary to dislodge established government, notion of civil society in Pakistan and possibilities of emerging leadership were discussed by Fatima Bhutto and Ayesha Jalal. The details can be found in the recording link of the their interaction moderated by senior journalist Karan Tapar in this blog at right side of this blog. 

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